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[su_box title=”China-Taiwan: What we learned from Beijing’s drills around the island” style=”glass” radius=”8″]The hardliners in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party would probably be quite happy with where Nancy Pelosi’s visit has left them. Ms Pelosi gave them a window and they used it.
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A series of more extreme military measures around Taiwan have now been thrust into the realm of “acceptability”. These moves – including firing missiles over the island – have become “acceptable” not because the international community approves of them but because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it.
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Each time the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flies fighter jets closer – or in greater numbers – across the Taiwan Strait, this becomes the new standard. What’s more, the very idea that mainland China might one day attack Taiwan to seize the territory by force is now being considered a likely possibility by many more Chinese people.
人æ°è§£æŸè» (PLA) ãå°æ¹Ÿæµ·å³¡ãè¶ããŠæŠéæ©ãããè¿ãã«ããŸãã¯ããå€ãé£ã°ããã³ã«ããããæ°ããæšæºã«ãªããŸããããã«ãäžåœæ¬åããã€ãå°æ¹Ÿãæ»æããŠé åãæŠåã§å¥ªåããå¯èœæ§ããããšãããŸãã«ãã®èãã¯ãçŸåšãããå€ãã®äžåœäººã«ãã£ãŠå¯èœæ§ãé«ããšèããããŠããŸã.
A side benefit of this grand, live-fire show by the PLA has also been to accelerate the belief globally that China’s military rise is unstoppable – this may possibly intimidate South East Asian neighbors which have rival claims to the South China Sea.
人æ°è§£æŸè»ã«ãããã®å£®å€§ãªå®åŒŸå°æã·ã§ãŒã®å¯æ¬¡çãªå©ç¹ã¯ãäžåœã®è»äºåã®å°é ãæ¢ããããšã¯ã§ããªããšããäžççãªä¿¡å¿µãå éãããããšã«ããªããŸãããããã¯ãåã·ãæµ·ã«å¯Ÿããç«¶åãã䞻匵ãæã€æ±åã¢ãžã¢ã®è¿é£è«žåœãåšåããå¯èœæ§ããããŸãã
These vast military exercises would have taken some planning. It is hard to imagine that the generals conceived of them, all of a sudden, when it was leaked that Ms Pelosi was planning visit Taiwan.
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What seems more likely is that they had the plans ready and pulled them out of the drawer because the opportunity presented itself. As one laughing nationalist in Beijing put it when he was interviewed in the street last week, “Thanks comrade Pelosi”!
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[su_note]The hardliners in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party would probably be quite happy with where Nancy Pelosi’s visit has left them. Ms Pelosi gave them a window and they used it.[/su_note]
[su_note note_color=”#85ff66″ text_color=”#ff0000″]äžåœå ±ç£å ã®äžå±€éšã®åŒ·ç¡¬æŽŸã¯ããã³ã·ãŒã»ããã·ã®èšªåã圌ããã©ãã«æ®ããã®ããããããéåžžã«æºè¶³ããŠããã§ããã.ããã·ããã¯åœŒãã«çªãäžãã圌ãã¯ããã䜿ããŸããã[/su_note]
äžåœå ±ç£å ã®äžå±€éšã®åŒ·ç¡¬æŽŸ(the hardliners in the upper echelons)ã¯ããã³ã·ãŒã»ããã·ã®èšªåã圌ããã©ãã«æ®ããã®ããããããéåžžã«æºè¶³ããŠããã§ããã(would probably be quite happy).ããã·ããã¯åœŒãã«çªãäžãã圌ãã¯ããã䜿ããŸããã
ãã³ã·ãŒã»ããã·ã¢ã¡ãªã«äžé¢è°é·ãå é±ãå°æ¹Ÿã蚪åããããšã¯ãäžåœãæ¿æãããŸããã
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ã§ãã仿¥ã®èšäºã¯ãå®ã¯ãäžåœã¯ããã«æ¬åœã¯æºè¶³ããŠããã®ã§ã¯ãªããïŒãšè©±ãå§ããŠããŸãã
“would probably be quite happy”ã§ãããããéåžžã«æºè¶³ããŠããã§ãããããšèš³ããŠããŸãã
“quite”ã¯ããã£ãããå šããéåžžã«ããšããæå³ã
[su_note]A series of more extreme military measures around Taiwan have now been thrust into the realm of “acceptability”. These moves – including firing missiles over the island – have become “acceptable” not because the international community approves of them but because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it.[/su_note]
[su_note note_color=”#85ff66″ text_color=”#ff0000″]å°æ¹ŸåšèŸºã®äžé£ã®ããæ¥µç«¯ãªè»äºçæªçœ®ã¯ãä»ãã容èªãã®é åã«æŒã蟌ãŸããŠãããå³¶äžç©ºã§ã®ããµã€ã«çºå°ãå«ããããã®åãã¯ãåœé瀟äŒãããããæ¿èªããããã§ã¯ãªããããããèµ·ãã£ãããã«ãåãå ¥ãããããããã«ãªããå京ã¯ãããå ããã[/su_note]
å°æ¹ŸåšèŸºã®äžé£ã®ããæ¥µç«¯ãªè»äºçæªçœ®(a series of more extreme military measures)ã¯ãä»ãã容èªãã®é åã«æŒã蟌ãŸããŠãã(have now been thrust into the realm of “acceptability)ãå³¶äžç©ºã§ã®ããµã€ã«çºå°ãå«ããããã®åãã¯ãåœé瀟äŒãããããæ¿èªããããã§ã¯ãªããããããèµ·ãã£ãããã«(not because the international community approves of them but because they have happened)ãåãå ¥ãããããããã«ãªããå京ã¯ãããå ããã
äžåœã®å°æ¹Ÿã§ã®äžé£ã®è»äºçãªæªçœ®ã¯ãåœé瀟äŒã®äžã§ã仿¹ã®ãªãããšã®ããã«èŠãããŠããã
ãã¢ã¡ãªã«ã®äžé¢è°é·ãå°æ¹Ÿã蚪ããããè»äºè¡åã§åšåããã®ã仿¹ãªããããããšåœé瀟äŒã§èŠãããŠããç¯ãããã
ããã¯ãåœé瀟äŒãæ¿èªããããã§ã¯ãªããããã·äžé¢è°é·ã蚪åãããããšããã®ãçç±ã
ããã«ãã£ãŠãå京ã¯éé£ãåããããšãå ããŠããŸã£ãã
“not because the international community approves of them but because they have happened”ã§ãåœé瀟äŒããããã容èªããããã§ã¯ãªããããããèµ·ãã£ãããã«ããšèš³ããŠããŸãã
“not only ~ but also ~”ã§ã~ã§ã¯ãªãã~ã ããããšããæå³ã§ããã
[su_note]Each time the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flies fighter jets closer – or in greater numbers – across the Taiwan Strait, this becomes the new standard. What’s more, the very idea that mainland China might one day attack Taiwan to seize the territory by force is now being considered a likely possibility by many more Chinese people.[/su_note]
[su_note note_color=”#85ff66″ text_color=”#ff0000″]人æ°è§£æŸè» (PLA) ãå°æ¹Ÿæµ·å³¡ãè¶ããŠæŠéæ©ãããè¿ãã«ããŸãã¯ããå€ãé£ã°ããã³ã«ããããæ°ããæšæºã«ãªããŸããããã«ãäžåœæ¬åããã€ãå°æ¹Ÿãæ»æããŠé åãæŠåã§å¥ªåããå¯èœæ§ããããšãããŸãã«ãã®èãã¯ãçŸåšãããå€ãã®äžåœäººã«ãã£ãŠå¯èœæ§ãé«ããšèããããŠããŸã.[/su_note]
人æ°è§£æŸè» (PLA) ãå°æ¹Ÿæµ·å³¡ãè¶ããŠæŠéæ©ãããè¿ãã«ããŸãã¯ããå€ãé£ã°ããã³ã«ããããæ°ããæšæºã«ãªããŸã(this becomes the new standard)ãããã«(what’s more)ãäžåœæ¬åããã€ãå°æ¹Ÿãæ»æããŠé åãæŠåã§å¥ªåããå¯èœæ§ããããšãããŸãã«ãã®èã(the very idea that mainland China might one day attack Taiwan to seize the territory by force)ã¯ãçŸåšãããå€ãã®äžåœäººã«ãã£ãŠå¯èœæ§ãé«ããšèããããŠããŸã(is now being considered a likely possibility).
ãã®ããã«ããŠãåžžã«å°æ¹ŸåšèŸºã§è»äºæŒç¿ããããšããã®ãããã®ãã¡ã«åœããåã«ãªã£ãŠããã
ãããäžåœã¯çã£ãŠããã®ã§ã¯ãªããïŒãšããããšã§ãã
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“the very idea that mainland China might one day attack Taiwan to seize the territory by force”ã§ãäžåœæ¬åããã€ãå°æ¹Ÿãæ»æããŠé åãæŠåã§å¥ªåããå¯èœæ§ããããšãããŸãã«ãã®èãããšèš³ããŠããŸãã
“that”以äžã®å 容㧔the very idea”ããŸãã«ãã®èãããã©ã®ãããªèããªã®ãã説æããŠããŸãã
[su_note]A side benefit of this grand, live-fire show by the PLA has also been to accelerate the belief globally that China’s military rise is unstoppable – this may possibly intimidate South East Asian neighbors which have rival claims to the South China Sea.[/su_note]
[su_note note_color=”#85ff66″ text_color=”#ff0000″]人æ°è§£æŸè»ã«ãããã®å£®å€§ãªå®åŒŸå°æã·ã§ãŒã®å¯æ¬¡çãªå©ç¹ã¯ãäžåœã®è»äºåã®å°é ãæ¢ããããšã¯ã§ããªããšããäžççãªä¿¡å¿µãå éãããããšã«ããªããŸãããããã¯ãåã·ãæµ·ã«å¯Ÿããç«¶åãã䞻匵ãæã€æ±åã¢ãžã¢ã®è¿é£è«žåœãåšåããå¯èœæ§ããããŸãã[/su_note]
人æ°è§£æŸè»ã«ãããã®å£®å€§ãªå®åŒŸå°æã·ã§ãŒã®å¯æ¬¡çãªå©ç¹ã¯ãäžåœã®è»äºåã®å°é ãæ¢ããããšã¯ã§ããªããšããäžççãªä¿¡å¿µãå éãããããšã«ããªããŸãã(has also been to accelerate the belief globally that China’s military rise is unstoppable)ãããã¯ãåã·ãæµ·ã«å¯Ÿããç«¶åãã䞻匵ãæã€(which have rival claims to the South China Sea)æ±åã¢ãžã¢ã®è¿é£è«žåœãåšåããå¯èœæ§ããããŸã(may intimidate South East Asian neighbors) ã
人æ°è§£æŸè»ããããã·è°é·ã®å°æ¹Ÿèšªåã«åãããŠã壮倧ãªè»äºèšç·Žãè¡ã£ããšããããšã¯ãäžççã«å ±ããããã
ãããŠãäœãšãªããäžåœã1ã€ã®äžåœã䞻匵ããŠããã®ã«ãã¢ã¡ãªã«ã®äžé¢è°é·ãå°æ¹Ÿã蚪åããã°ãããã¯æãã ãããªãããšããæãã«äžççã«æãããããã«ãªã£ãŠããŸã£ãŠããã
ãã®ããšã¯ãåã·ãæµ·ã§é æµ·ã®ç·åŒãã§æããŠããæ±åã¢ãžã¢ã®äžåœã®è¿é£è«žåœã«ãšã£ãŠã¯è åšã§ãã
äžåœã¯åæ²è«žå³¶ã§ãã人工島ãäœã£ãŠãå®å¹æ¯é ããããããŠããŸãã
“may intimidate South East Asian neighbors”ã§ãæ±åã¢ãžã¢ã®è¿é£è«žåœãåšåããå¯èœæ§ãããããšèš³ããŠããŸãã
“intimidate”ã¯ãæããããããã³ããããããšããæå³ããããŸãã
[su_note]These vast military exercises would have taken some planning. It is hard to imagine that the generals conceived of them, all of a sudden, when it was leaked that Ms Pelosi was planning visit Taiwan.[/su_note]
[su_note note_color=”#85ff66″ text_color=”#ff0000″]ãããã®å€§èŠæš¡ãªè»äºæŒç¿ã«ã¯ãããçšåºŠã®èšç»ãå¿ èŠã§ãããããã·æ°ãå°æ¹Ÿèšªåãèšç»ããŠããããšããªãŒã¯ããããšããå°è»ãã¡ãçªç¶åœŒãã®ããšãæãã€ãããšã¯æ³åããããã[/su_note]
ãããã®å€§èŠæš¡ãªè»äºæŒç¿ã«ã¯ãããçšåºŠã®èšç»ãå¿ èŠã§ãããããã·æ°ãå°æ¹Ÿèšªåãèšç»ããŠããããšããªãŒã¯ããããšã(when it was leaked)ãå°è»ãã¡ãçªç¶åœŒãã®ããšãæãã€ãã(that the generals conceived of them, all of a sudden)ãšã¯æ³åãããã(it is hard to imagine)ã
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äžåœã¯ãåã ããããã®ãããªæ©äŒãããã°ã倧ã çãªå°æ¹Ÿãžã®è»äºåšåã®èšç·ŽãããæºåãæŽããŠããã®ã§ã¯ãªããïŒ
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“it is hard to imagine that ~”ã§ã~ãšã¯æ³åããããããšèš³ããŠããŸãã
“that”以äžã§å 容ã瀺ããšããã®ã¯ãè±èªã§ããããèšãæ¹ãšããã®ã¯ããããŸã§ãããããèšã£ãŠããŸããã
[su_note]What seems more likely is that they had the plans ready and pulled them out of the drawer because the opportunity presented itself. As one laughing nationalist in Beijing put it when he was interviewed in the street last week, “Thanks comrade Pelosi”![/su_note]
[su_note note_color=”#85ff66″ text_color=”#ff0000″]ããå¯èœæ§ãé«ãã®ã¯ã圌ããèšç»ãæºåããŠããŠãæ©äŒãçŸããããã«ããããåŒãåºãããåŒãåºãããšããããšã§ã.å京ã®ãããã·ã§ããªã¹ãã¯ãå é±è·¯äžã§ã€ã³ã¿ãã¥ãŒãåãããšãããåå¿ããã·ã«æè¬ããŸãããšç¬ããªããèšããŸããã[/su_note]
ããå¯èœæ§ãé«ãã®ã¯(what seems more likely)ã圌ããèšç»ãæºåããŠããŠãæ©äŒãçŸããããã«ããããåŒãåºãããåŒãåºãã(pulled them out of the drawer)ãšããããšã§ã.å京ã®ãããã·ã§ããªã¹ãã¯ãå é±è·¯äžã§ã€ã³ã¿ãã¥ãŒãåãããšãããåå¿ããã·(comrade Pelosi)ã«æè¬ããŸãããšç¬ããªããèšããŸããã
ãã¯ããå¯èœæ§ãé«ãã®ã¯ãå ã èšç»ãããŠããŠãããã·è°é·ã®å°æ¹Ÿèšªåãšããçµ¶å¥œã®æ©äŒããã£ãŠæ¥ãã®ã§ã倧ã çãªè»äºæŒç¿ãè¡ã£ãã
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ã ãããå京ã®ãããã·ã§ããªã¹ãã¯ãè·¯äžã€ã³ã¿ãã¥ãŒã§ãåå¿ããã·ã«æè¬ããããšç¬ããªããèšã£ãããã§ãã
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“what seems more likely”ã§ãããå¯èœæ§ãé«ãã®ã¯ããšèš³ããŠããŸãã
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